The world is preparing for 2023 in the shadow of 2022, which was completed with the war and the shocking developments that followed. We have compiled 11 of the most important world agendas for you, in which Russia, the Ukraine war and its consequences have created a butterfly effect.

The year 2022 has been difficult and corrosive for world diplomacy. The war launched by Russia against Ukraine on February 24, just at the beginning of 2022, made its effects felt all over the world as the biggest nuclear threat after the Cuban Crisis, the Third World War concern, the energy and food crisis.

While the shocking death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in Iran brought hundreds of thousands of people to the streets in the country, millions of people in the world who gave voice to the voice of Iranian women took to the streets.

Undoubtedly, Afghanistan was one of the countries that shook the world in terms of women’s rights. The Taliban, which took over the administration in the country after the withdrawal of the USA in August 2021, adds a new one every day to the reactionary rights violations against women.
After the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, one of the results of the migration wave triggered by the war between Russia and Ukraine was reflected as the rise of the extreme right in European politics. The beginning of the Giorgio Meloni era in Italy and the fact that Le Pen broke his own record in the Presidential elections in France in April caused concern within the framework of the resurgence of the far right.

While talking about the rise of the far right in Europe, Lula’s rise from the ashes by defeating Bolsonaro in Brazil was one of the developments that added 2022 to the pages of history, as the year in which the “pink wave” spread the most in Latin America.

2022, which we will not be wrong to call “the most challenging year after many years” for world diplomacy, also caused diplomatic crises that will reflect its effects for many years, let alone 2023.

Here are 11 important events that dragged the world from crisis to crisis under the butterfly effect in 2022:

10 months that shook the world: The Russia-Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address to the nation on his country’s state television in the morning of February 24 was the starting firecracker of the war that would cause millions of people to be displaced, thousands of people to die, and change the course of history. In his first statement after the speech that started the war, Putin emphasized that “he took the decision to launch a special military operation upon the request of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics due to the military abuse of Ukrainian territory by the United States and its NATO allies” and that this was “unacceptable for Russia”.

President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelenski, on the other hand, described the situation with the words “A full-fledged occupation has begun” after Putin’s speech and Russian soldiers entered his country from three directions and besieged the capital Kiev, and declared martial law throughout Ukraine.

Carrying out a policy of balance between both Russia and Ukraine in the war that has been going on for more than 10 months, Turkey also frequently took place on the world agenda with its negotiation efforts throughout 2022.

Migration wave swept the world

The war between Russia and Ukraine caused a huge wave of immigration in a very short time. According to the United Nations (UN) data, even in the first week of the war, the wave of migration had overtaken the impact of the Syrian civil war. According to the UN, 7 million 832 thousand 493 people from Ukraine crossed to European countries, the number of internally displaced people reached 11 million, at least 6 thousand 755 civilians lost their lives and 10 thousand 607 civilians were injured.
Balance sheet not clear
Announcing that 5,937 Russian soldiers died in the war in Ukraine in September, Russia did not disclose any new information on this issue. Russian officials claim that 61 thousand 207 Ukrainian soldiers died during the war, while the number of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine exceeds 100 thousand. Neither side can give exact figures on civilian casualties in the war.

 

Sanction frenzy

Along with the political and social effects of the war, the sanctions against Russia in the economic field have had their direct or indirect effects all over the world. European Union (EU) member states, the USA and other Western countries have set new sanctions against Russia, which has intervened militarily in Ukraine, in various fields such as finance, energy, transportation, export control and financing, and visa policy.
The EU adopted 9 sanctions packages against Russia during the war. Thus, in total, the EU decided to impose sanctions on 1386 individuals and 171 institutions. The EU decided to impose a ceiling price on Russian oil and natural gas, and some other Western countries also joined the decision. Russia responded to these decisions with sanctions.

On July 22, the “Safe Shipment of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports Initiative Document” was signed between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations (UN) to prevent a possible food crisis in the world.

Russia wanted to suspend the grain agreement, citing the “Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge and Sevastopol naval base”, but the issue was later resolved and the agreement was extended for 120 days as of November 19.

The biggest nuclear threat after the Cuban Crisis

The war that started between Russia and Ukraine gained a different dimension, especially with the introduction of nuclear threat cards. In 2022, the world faced the most serious nuclear threat since the missile crisis between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America (USA) in 1962.

Putin said he would “use all the tools at his disposal” to protect his country. On top of that, US President Joe Biden said, “We haven’t faced the possibility of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” The intelligence that Russia would test the Poseidon, known as the “Doomsday weapon”, while continuing its nuclear threats, stretched the ropes in the world. As long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the world’s nuclear fear will continue. I think this will be the only fear that will remain from 2022 to 2023.

One voice, one heart for the world Amini

The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on September 13, when she was detained by the Irshad Patrols, known as the “morality police,” on the grounds that she did not comply with the mandatory headscarf rules, caused outrage in the country. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets all over Iran, chanting freedom slogans against the security forces.

In the latest statement made by the Norway-based Iranian Human Rights Organization (IHR), it was stated that the number of people who lost their lives increased to 476.

The search for rights and freedom of Iranian women, which also influenced the world, brought the end of the Irshad Patrol period. Ali Hanmuhammedi, Spokesperson of the Center for Enjoining Good and Preventing Evil, announced that the duty of the Irshad Patrols, known as the “morality police,” within the law enforcement agencies, has come to an end.

Muhsin Şikari was sentenced to death on December 8, 75 days after he was taken into custody, and Mecidrıza Rahneverd was executed on December 12, 23 days after he was taken into custody. In the report, it was stated that at least 100 people are at risk of being sentenced to death, imprisonment or execution, and reminded that there are already those who have been sentenced to death.

Iranian officials argue that the people killed were not killed by the security forces, but by “provocateurs”. According to the news reflected in the Iranian media, more than 60 security guards lost their lives during the demonstrations.

It is obvious that the effects of the demonstrations, which led to the reopening of the debate on compulsory veiling in Iran, will continue in 2023.

 

There is no end to the tension with Turkey – Greece

Remembering that they are “neighbors” in natural disasters or similar issues, the threads between Ankara and Athens started to give a red alert in 2022, with the leaders of the two countries targeting each other. In fact, “positive agenda” messages emerged from the meeting of Greek Prime Minister Kiryakos Mitsotakis and President Tayyip Erdogan, who visited Istanbul in March 2022, but relations began to deteriorate in the following months.

Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, to whom President Erdogan addressed with the words “There is no Mitsotakis for me anymore” due to the arming of the islands, also responded at the same level and kept the escalating tension at the highest level. When Erdoğan finally said, “We can come suddenly one night,” the eyes of the whole world turned to two NATO allies.

According to Turkey, the main topics of the problems with Greece are; maritime jurisdiction areas, namely, the breadth of the territorial waters and the continental shelf, airspaces, islets and rocks of unknown identity, and the arming of the Eastern Aegean Islands by Greece.

According to Greece, there is only one dispute between the two countries in the Aegean Sea; it is the continental shelf.

While Turkey reminded Greece of the Treaty of Lausanne signed in 1923 and the Treaty of Paris signed in 1947 on the armament of the islands, Greece said that the armament of the islands was nothing new, and that the Greek islands were armed with the fear of a possible Turkish-Greek War after the Cyprus Peace Operation was carried out in 1974. states. Greece emphasizes that it applied to the United Nations in those years and armed the islands within the scope of ‘self-defense’ stipulated by Article 51.

Sweden and Finland’s NATO candidacy that confused the world

The war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had the effect of reinforcing the idea that Europe’s security could not be achieved without the United States or NATO.

Russia’s quest to return to great state status forces Sweden and Finland to take a more realistic view of their NATO security in order to avoid a similar Russian invasion. The NATO membership process, which emerged as the most basic solution to the rising threat perception for Sweden and Finland, started with the official documents delivered to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on May 18, 2022.

The NATO membership negotiations of Sweden and Finland and the enthusiastic support of the USA and other European countries evolved into a different dimension when Turkey announced its security concerns. President Tayyip Erdoğan stated to the public that these two countries, especially Sweden, directly support the terrorist organization PKK, which Turkey has been fighting for decades, grant political asylum to its members and provide financial assistance, and that these attitudes should change for Turkey’s approval. announced.

In the last period, Sweden’s new government is trying to persuade Turkey to conclude the negotiation process, while Finland prefers to wait and observe how the dynamics will evolve, instead of taking concrete steps.

A story of instability: England

If we say that 2022 has been quite challenging for England, we will never be wrong. The country, driven by political scandals to resign, has seen three prime ministers in one year, along with Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.

Post-Brexit business, both economically and diplomatically, did not go “good” for the UK as predicted, while the name of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who implemented strict measures due to Covid-19, was involved in party scandals during the quarantine period, which ignited the country’s entry into a process of instability.

After party scandals and a series of other scandals, Boris Johnson, who announced his resignation from the ruling Conservative Party leadership on 7 July, stepped aside politically after giving the seat to the new prime minister. After Johnson’s resignation, the result of the vote of the ruling Conservative Party members was announced on September 5, and Liz Truss received 81,326 votes, while her rival Rishi Sunak remained at 60,399.

Thus, Truss, who won the leadership race within the party, was also entitled to become the new prime minister of the country. The expectation of resignation had already increased for Truss, who lost confidence with his “U-turn” from the “mini-budget” economic policy that caused great turmoil in the markets after sitting in the prime minister’s seat. Using the phrases “I am a fighter, I will not give up”, Truss went down in history as “the shortest remaining Prime Minister” in modern British history with the 44 days he could stay in the seat. After Truss’ 44-day adventure in the prime minister’s seat, eyes were locked on a few names for the Conservative Party leadership and therefore the new prime minister of the country, one of these names, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, stated that he had withdrawn. After Johnson’s withdrawal, former Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt withdrew from the Conservative Party leadership race and declared support for Rishi Sunak, making it the third prime minister the country has seen in a year.

In addition to being the first Indian origin and young Prime Minister in British modern history, 43-year-old Rishi Sunak, who has previously occupied the agenda with his wealth from the Royal family and a series of tax scandals, will lead the steps to be taken by the “Unset Sun” in world diplomacy in 2023.

Rising right and anxiety in Europe

The migrant crisis, which has become one of the biggest problems in the world in recent years, has become an even bigger problem for world diplomacy with the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine and more than 7 million people suddenly turning to European countries. The biggest victory of the extreme right in 2022 was Giorgio Meloni, who established his government in Italy. Despite the rise of far-right movements and parties across Europe in recent years, they could not achieve such a victory.

The gain of far-right politics before Italy was in Sweden. In the elections, it was noteworthy that the far-right Sweden Democrats Party (SD) became the second largest party in the country by increasing its vote rate up to 20.5 percent.

In the second round of the French presidential election held in April, Emmanuel Macron was re-elected president, surpassing the far-right Marine Le Pen, with whom he once again competed. However, this election was recorded as “a historic election in which Le Pen and the far right increased their votes”.

Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered the federal parliament for the first time in the 2017 general election in Germany, has become another far-right party that has attracted attention in recent years in Europe. The AfD’s over 10 percent of the vote was interpreted as an indication that far-right tendencies have become permanent in German society.

Although the rise of the far right in Europe goes back further (2016-2017), we wanted to give short examples from the elections that took place in 2022 and more recently.

Israeli Sharia

As expected after the elections held for the fifth time in the last three and a half years in Israel, the allegations that “the longest-lasting alliance of Bibi will bring Jewish sharia in the country has stirred things up.”

Meir Kahane, with the aim of expelling the Arabs from Israel and bringing theocracy to Israel, founded the ultra-radical Kach party after immigrating from the United States to Israel. Although the party was dissolved in 1986, “Kahanism” did not end as a movement. After the election results in Israel, the world press constantly emphasized Kahanism. After the ballot boxes were closed, the titles of “Kahanism won” took a lot of place in the agenda.

Claims that he is the current supporter of Kahanism and that Netanyahu will appoint Ben Gvir as Minister of State for Public Security has been one of the most talked about issues in Israel.

In the early general election held on 1 November in Israel, the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu won a clear victory by sending 64 deputies to the 120-seat Parliament. It is considered certain that Netanyahu’s coalition government with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties will receive a vote of confidence from the Parliament.

Pink wave in Latin America

Left-wing ex-President Lula da Silva was the winner of the second round of the critical elections held in Brazil on October 30. The victory of Lula da Silva, who defeated the dictator Jair Bolsonaro, who has been on the agenda for years, resonated in Latin America. Brazil joined the left-wing bloc that also includes Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Peru, after Lula defeated his far-right opponent, current President Jair Bolsonaro, in the second round of the ballot box.

For the first time in the history of Latin America, 6 big countries, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Chile are ruled by leftist governments. The second “pink wave” has risen in Latin America, with the left-wing power of 6 countries at the same time for the first time in history.

Fear of the Third World War in the Balkans

The restriction imposed by the Republic of Kosovo on border crossings with Serbia drew the reaction of the Serbs living in the north of the country. When Kosovo Serbs set up barricades and blocked roads to protest the decision, tensions between the two countries rose to such an extent that it triggered World War III concerns.

While Russia supported Serbia on Kosovo, the Serbian side continued to make statements that would increase the tension. It is obvious that this high-dose tension in the Balkans will have great effects on 2023. If you say what happened, the ropes were tense again… After the detention of former Serbian police officer Dejan Pantic, the tension between Kosovo and Serbia increased. Reacting to Pantic’s detention, Kosovo Serbs have been standing guard at the barricades they set up at the Jarinje and Bernjak border crossings since 10 December.

The European Union (EU), NATO and the USA called for the reduction of tension in the north of Kosovo and the removal of barricades; Serbia has requested NATO’s Kosovo Peacekeeping Force (KFOR) to deploy Serbian army and police in northern Kosovo.

Serbia considers Kosovo, which declared its independence unilaterally in 2008, as its territory.

Serbia and Kosovo, which periodically clash, are trying to find a common way for the normalization of relations and ultimately for the two countries to get to know each other, within the scope of the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue Process, which was initiated in 2011 under the mediation of the EU.​

The cradle of rights violations, attacks and deep economic crisis: Afghanistan

The Taliban, which took over the country’s administration with the withdrawal of the USA on August 15, 2021, stated that they wanted to develop good diplomatic relations with all countries from the first day, but their rhetoric and actions did not match each other. The Taliban’s “wishments for the official recognition of the administration they established” of the Taliban, which drew the reaction of the whole world due to the violations of rights against women and girls, were inconclusive.

Under the Taliban, thousands of women were laid off or forced out of their jobs in both “government” institutions and the private sector. Currently, women can only work in areas where they are needed, such as hospitals, schools, police departments and airports.

Finally, the Taliban administration suspended all local and foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from employing female staff on 24 December, and suspended female students’ education at universities on 20 December. Currently, female students in the country can only study up to the 6th grade.
On November 10, women were banned from entering parks, gardens and gyms. In these decisions, the reason was given that women did not comply with the headscarf rules introduced by the Taliban administration in May.
In the judicial system, heavy penalties were applied for certain crimes. On December 7, a person convicted of murder was publicly executed for the first time since the Taliban.

Following this, while people convicted of crimes such as adultery, theft and kidnapping were being whipped in some provinces, after a directive sent to television channels, female announcers started to present the news by wearing veils.
Freedom of expression and press were limited by introducing restrictions in the field of media. While many media outlets had to shut down, many media workers were unemployed.
The actions of the terrorist organization ISIS in Afghanistan, especially targeting Afghan Shiites, civilians, Taliban members, foreign missions and citizens, did not stop throughout the year. While the terrorist organization ISIS claimed responsibility for most of the attacks that took place in Afghanistan in the last year, hundreds of people lost their lives in the attacks.

Post-Taliban Westerners, who had previously funded more than two-thirds of the Afghan administration’s budget, cut their aid. This situation dragged the country’s economy into a deep crisis. The banking system suffered greatly. Thousands of businesses had to close. Unemployment, poverty and hunger have reached alarming levels.

The threat of conflict in the Pacific

The rivalry between the two arch-rivals China and the USA warmed the Pacific waters in 2022. The growing influence of China in the region has pushed the US to turn its attention from Russia, which is dealing with Ukraine, to the Pacific region. The increasing geostrategic rivalry with the USA in 2022 in China and the tension created by the Taiwan problem between the two countries constituted the most important agenda item in foreign policy.

While the US government under the leadership of President Joe Biden continues its policy of strengthening regional alliance systems against China within the framework of its global strategy to shift to Asia-Pacific, Taiwan has become a crisis issue between the two countries with the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned on April 8 that Pelosi’s visit would mean “crossing the red line” defined by the “one China” principle. Despite all the warnings from China, Pelosi’s visit took place on August 2. Before the visit, which was not announced until the last minute, it was observed that the military activity around Taiwan increased.

In the exercise carried out by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), off the Pingtan Islands of Fucien province on the opposite coast of Taiwan Island, real ammunition was used, and ships were banned from entering the area 125 kilometers from the Taiwan coast. The PLA has closed the area up to 89 kilometers south of Macau in the South China Sea to ship traffic due to a routine military exercise held off the coast of Guangdong province in southern Taiwan.

While China’s two aircraft carriers were leaving their ports with their war fleets, the Ronald Reagan warship, which was attached to the 7th fleet of the US Navy in the Pacific, started to move in the South China Sea in the direction of Taiwan with its war fleet. The world began to watch the visit, which brought the two countries to the brink of military conflict, with concern. On the night of August 2, the plane that carried Pelosi and her 5-member Congress delegation from Malaysia to Taiwan was watched live on the internet by millions of people in China and around the world.

It was reported that Chinese “S-35” warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait as the plane approached the islands. On the other hand, there were reports that American warplanes took off from Okinawa Island near Taiwan. Pelosi and her crew arrived on Ada amid all these tensions. The delegation, which met with Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen the next day, left the island the same night after their contacts.

The Chinese army started military exercises around the island in response to the visit. The exercises, which lasted 7 days, created a de facto blockade around the island. During exercises using real weapons and ammunition, guided missiles fired from mainland China fell into the waters near Taiwan.

An army spokesman announced the completion of the exercises on August 10, and stated that military patrol activity in the Taiwan Strait will continue.

In the months following the visit, China has regularized military patrol activities around the Island and flights in the Taiwan Strait, where it crosses the “middle line” that is supposed to limit the influence areas of the parties and the area that Taiwan has declared the “Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)”.

Undoubtedly, this development will be one of the most talked about topics in 2023.