A study examining 2021 homicides based on death certificate data predicts that if homicide rates in the United States (US) stay at 2021 levels, one in 179 Americans will eventually be killed.
Referring to Americans, Jim Agresti, president and co-founder of Just Facts, a nonprofit research institute, told Fox News Digital, “Someone is going to kill you before you die of natural causes, accident, suicide, or whatever. ” said.
Just Facts took on a major project to examine how many people were killed in 2021 after experts reported that there was no exact number for 2021 murders as newly released FBI data for that year were incomplete and based on estimates.
The reporting system was introduced
In early 2021, the FBI switched to a new registry program called the National Incident-Based Reporting System, which aims to provide a more comprehensive picture of crimes, such as what weapons were used in an incident, the types of goods stolen, and more detailed demographic information about the victims and perpetrators of crimes.
But nearly 40 percent of police departments nationwide did not provide the FBI with complete data on 2021 crimes.
The FBI estimates that between 21,300 and 24,600 people were killed last year, but that data remained embedded in the report, as summarized in Just Facts’ “As Murders Rise, the FBI Buries Data.”
Only 11,794 out of 18,806 reported
Some media outlets such as NewsNation reported that homicides were much lower at 14,677 and heralded this as evidence that homicides are on a downward trend.
But as Just Facts points out in its study, the number released by the FBI doesn’t exactly reflect the actual number of homicides in 2021. The 14,677 numbers are accompanied by warnings that only 11,794 of the 18,806 law enforcement agencies in the country have reported their crime data to the FBI, and the decline is said to be due to an “overall decline in agency involvement.”
Another dataset “embedded” in the FBI data shows that between 21,300 and 24,600 people were killed, according to the study.
More accurate data
At Just Facts, Agresti and her team scrutinized death certificates to find a more tangible amount beyond FBI estimates and missing data; this method was introduced by the Ministry of Justice a few years ago.
In a 2014 study published by the FBI’s Department of Justice, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics System, based on birth and death certificate data, emphasized that for many reasons, it provided “more accurate nationally accurate homicide data” than the FBI’s Supplementary Murder Reports.
More death data, FBI undercounts
After examining the 2021 death certificate data, Just Facts was able to determine that approximately 24,493 people were killed in 2021. This number was determined after subtracting the average number of reasoned killings by civilians that were not identified as murders, some justified killings by police, and miscoded cases.
The Just Facts study concluded that “For decades, the FBI undercounted homicides and overcounted death certificates. Starting with data from death certificates and subtracting homicides that could be justified provides a more reliable estimate of homicides.”
One in 179 Americans will eventually be killed
Just Facts noted that this research “could provide a scale for the massacres (2021)” and showed that one in every 179 Americans will eventually be killed.
While this number is quite “shocking,” as both Agresti and the research point out, Just Facts said it was certain:
“Even in previous years when murders were much less common, the prospect of lifetime murder was so shocking to some people that they sent Just Facts emails insisting it was wrong. Whereas, the methodology Just Facts used to calculate that number is a licensed version. It was developed by an actuary, double-checked by a PhD mathematician, and reviewed three times by a PhD biostatistician.”