According to the report of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, the probability of an energy crisis in the EU this winter has decreased.
However, it was pointed out that the outlook for the next winter is not clear and that measures to reduce consumption should be continued.
It was stated that the European Union (EU) should continue to take measures to reduce natural gas consumption in order to survive the next winter period.
Brussels-based think tank Bruegel’s study titled “Europe 2023 Gas Outlook” has been published.
According to the study, the possibility of an energy crisis in the EU this winter has decreased due to the emergency measures implemented last year and the warm winter months.
According to the study, where the outlook for the next winter is not yet clear, it is predicted that the EU may have to fill its gas tanks for the next winter, reduce consumption and compete with China in LNG supply.
NEEDS TO REDUCE DEMAND 13 PERCENT
To prevent Europe from experiencing an energy crisis next winter
In this context, especially gas storage facilities must be 90 percent full until October 1, 2023.
In order not to experience an energy crisis next winter, the EU needs to extend the period of the decision to reduce demand for gas, which will expire on March 31, 2023, and reduce the demand for gas to fill the warehouses.
If gas flows from Russia via pipelines continue at current levels next winter and temperatures remain within seasonal normals, the EU should reduce its gas demand by 13 percent.
It is predicted that if the natural gas supplied by pipelines from Russia is completely cut off and the winter is cold, more drastic measures will be required, in which case the EU may have to reduce its gas demand by 26 percent in order to survive the winter period.
‘STORES WILL BE AT HIGH LEVEL AT THE END OF WINTER’
On the other hand, the implementation period of the EU’s decision to reduce natural gas demand by 15 percent expires next month. Member states are expected to extend this period.
At the end of the EU’s winter period, the occupancy of gas tanks is expected to be higher than last year.
Currently, gas tanks are at approximately 73 percent fill level.
The EU will also start to conclude joint gas purchase contracts this year.
OCCUPATION RATE IN GERMANY 78.6 PERCENT
On the other hand, Gas Infrastructure Europe announced the occupancy rate of its gas storage facilities in Germany as of February 1.
Accordingly, the occupancy rate of natural gas storage facilities in Germany was recorded as 78.6 percent.
It was noteworthy that the amount in question was twice the occupancy rate required in the new regulation made after the Russia-Ukraine war.