Economists from investment bank Nomura report that British house prices appear to be on a downward path to about the middle of 2024. It was stated that this represents a more severe decline than other forecasters had predicted.
The market is already showing signs of reversal after the COVID-19 pandemic and tax cuts triggered a 29 percent rise in home prices with official action. Mortgage approvals have fallen sharply in recent months as interest rates hit 15-year highs.
Nomura said that for the ratio between higher monthly interest payments and squeezed income to return to normal levels, house prices must fall between 10 percent and 20 percent from their peak last year.
“So we settled on a central forecast of a 15 percent decline by mid-2024; “While this is in the middle of the above range, it will be a larger decline than anticipated by the Bank of England, the Office of Budget Responsibility and consensus.”
Official data for the period up to October, when Nomura reported that mortgage lenders were already predicting UK house prices to be 3.5 percent lower than their peak, have yet to decline.
Home prices in most major real estate markets will fall in 2023, according to nearly 100 home market analysts polled by Reuters last month.
House prices in the UK were predicted to fall by 4.7 percent in 2023 and fall by 10 percent from the peak to the bottom.
About 10 percent of the people in Belgium suffer from financial difficulties
According to a survey conducted in Belgium, about 10 percent of the population is unable to meet their standard of living financially and socially.
According to the statement made by Statbel, the Belgian Bureau of Statistics, based on the preliminary results obtained from the EU-SILC survey, approximately 1 million people lived in “material and social deprivation” in 2022. According to the statement, approximately one out of every ten people has financial difficulties in heating their house, meeting an unexpected bill, meeting with their friends to socialize and even being unable to afford it.
The study asked more than 6,700 families about their social relationships and thirteen expenses they could or could not afford. According to the researchers, those who could not afford five of the stated expenses were considered to be “living in material and social deprivation”. According to the results obtained from this criterion, 9.5 percent of the Belgian population lives in financial difficulties, cannot pay some of their bills and cannot socialize.
The results showed that there were differences by region. For example, 5.4 percent of the people living in the Flemish region are unable to afford their expenses, while this rate is 14.4 percent in the Walloon Region and 17.5 percent in the Brussels Region.
The statistics obtained showed that the energy crisis had serious consequences for some households. 5.1 percent of the participants stated that they do not have enough financial means to heat their house. In addition, the rate of those who could not pay an unexpected expense of 1300 Euro was seen as 22.7 percent.
While 20.8 percent of the participants stated that they could not go on holiday (at least) for one week a year due to financial reasons, one out of every 8 employees stated that they could not afford a one-week vacation.
The rate of those who stated that they could not get together with their friends due to financial reasons in order to socialize with the environment was 8.6 percent, and the rate of those who could not attend any activities to be held in their spare time was 10.6 percent.
YouTube’s ad revenues fell 8 percent
The recent shift of advertisers to more popular platforms like TikTok has cost YouTube dearly.
The global financial crisis, which felt its effects all over the world in 2022, also caused advertisers to cut their spending. This has made it more important than ever to use advertising budgets in the most effective way possible. Being aware of this situation, advertisers who choose the platforms they will advertise on have turned to TikTok, the rising star of the last period.
The fact that TikTok, which increases the number of active users day by day, is very popular, especially among young people, has caused advertisers to give priority to TikTok. As a matter of fact, this situation ate from the advertising revenues of other platforms. Giant platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube lost some of their advertising revenue to TikTok. The effects of this are now clearly visible.
One of the most obvious indicators of this shift in ad revenues appeared in Alphabet’s latest financial report. Figures shared by Alphabet, Google’s parent company, showed that the company fell short of expectations in the last quarter.
One of the most striking details in this financial report was the 8 percent drop in YouTube’s ad revenue. Total revenue of the popular video sharing platform in the last quarter of 2022 remained at $7.96 billion. However, this figure was 8.6 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
Interestingly, the total watch time on YouTube has increased compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, it is noteworthy that there is a decrease in advertising revenues. This shows that the average of the money paid by advertisers per view has decreased. While advertising costs increase on popular platforms such as TikTok, other platforms lose value. Looking at this table, it becomes more understandable why the USA is so loaded on TikTok.
Investor confidence in the euro area rose in February
In the Euro Zone, the investor confidence index increased to the 4th month, reaching its highest level since March 2022.
Sentix, which conducts market research and is headquartered in Frankfurt, announced the Euro Area General Investor Confidence Index data for February.
Accordingly, the Euro Area General Investor Confidence Index, which was minus 17.5 points in January, increased by 9.5 points to minus 8 points this month. The expectation for the index, which reached its highest level since March 2022, was to rise to minus 12.8.
The Expectations Index, which measures investors’ expectations for the next 6 months, rose from minus 15.8 points to minus 6 points, reaching its highest level since February 2022.
The Current Situation Index, which was minus 19.3 points, also rose to minus 10, the highest level since June 2022.
Patrick Hussy, Managing Director of Sentix, said, “The 9.5-point increase in the investor confidence index in the Eurozone in February signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, a recession scenario is taking shape in the economy.” used the phrase.
The investor confidence survey was conducted on February 2-4 with the participation of 1,317 investors.
On the other hand, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, rose 9.7 points to minus 6.8 points in January. It was noteworthy that the index increased for 4 consecutive months. In Germany, the Current Situation Index rose from minus 18 to minus 8.8 points.
Retail sales in the euro area fell in December
Retail sales in the euro area decreased by 2.7 percent in December compared to the previous month.
The European Statistical Office (Eurostat) has published the retail sales data of the European Union (EU) and Eurozone for December 2022.
Accordingly, retail sales in the EU decreased by 2.6 percent in December compared to the previous month and by 2.5 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
In the euro area, retail sales decreased by 2.7 percent in December compared to November and by 2.8 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
Thus, the average of retail sales increased by 0.7 percent in the Euro Area and by 1.1 percent in the EU in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Compared to the previous month, the highest decrease in retail sales among EU countries was seen in the Netherlands with 6.3 percent, in Germany with 5.3 percent and Luxembourg with 3.8 percent.
Retail sales fell 9.2 percent in Belgium, 8.4 percent in Denmark and 7.1 percent in Sweden on an annual basis.
Computer maker Dell to lay off about 6,650 jobs
The wave of layoffs at tech companies is growing. US-based computer manufacturer Dell is also preparing to lay off 6,500 people.
It has been reported that computer manufacturer Dell, headquartered in the USA, will join the wave of layoffs in technology companies and lay off approximately 6,650 people due to weakness in the computer market.
In a note to company employees, Dell Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jeff Clarke stated that Dell faces market conditions that continue to erode and have an uncertain future.
Clarke stated that savings measures such as hiring interruptions and travel restrictions are no longer sufficient.
It was stated that Dell aims to lay off approximately 6,650 people, or about 5 percent of its global workforce.
After the high demand in the Kovid-19 outbreak, consumers have significantly reduced their demand for technology hardware such as smartphones and laptops, with high inflation and an uncertain economic outlook.
According to the report of the IDC research company, Dell sold 37 percent fewer computers in the last quarter of last year compared to the same period in 2021.
WAVE OF FIRMWARE IN TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES
US tech companies are experiencing a wave of layoffs after significantly increasing their staff numbers in the epidemic in recent months.
While rising inflation and a possible recession are causing concerns in the tech industry, many tech companies, especially in the US, have started to decide to lay off thousands of people or take a break from new hires last year. Among these companies, the presence of leading companies in the technology sector such as Meta and Amazon was also noteworthy.
Finally, one of the US technology giants Microsoft announced that it would lay off 10 thousand employees, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, announced that it would lay off 12,000 employees.
Dell’s rivals HP announced that 6,000 and IBM would lay off about 3,900 of their employees.
According to the data of the Layoffs.fyi site, which tracks the layoffs in the technology sector, technology companies have laid off 292 companies and 88,138 employees since the beginning of the year.
Apple suffers biggest drop in sales since 2019
Tech giant Apple’s sales declined at the end of 2022 as the purchasing power of customers facing rising cost of living declined.
The iPhone’s manufacturer’s sales fell 5% in the last quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.
This was the biggest quarterly drop since 2019 and was worse than forecast.
The drop comes as many firms warn of a sharp economic slowdown, especially for the tech sector, which has been on the rise during the pandemic.
Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook, said the firm was operating in a “challenging environment”.
Sony raises fiscal 2022 net profit forecast
Electronics maker Sony Group has announced that its net profit for fiscal 2022 is expected to be 870 billion yen.
World-renowned technology company Sony has increased its previous 840 billion yen comprehensive net profit forecast for fiscal 2022 to 870 billion yen ($6.6 billion).
In the fiscal year, with sales revenues expected to be 11.5 trillion yen ($87.6 billion), the firm’s operating profit is targeted at 1.18 trillion yen ($9 billion). The current fiscal year 2022 will close by the end of March 2023.
In the April-December period of the fiscal year 2022, the Japanese firm’s net profit increased by 4.9 percent compared to the same period last year, to 808.9 billion yen ($6.1 billion).
OPERATING PROFIT INCREASED 1.5 PERCENT
Operating profit rose 1.5 percent to 1.08 trillion yen ($8.2 billion) during this period, when sales revenues rose 10.7 percent to 8.48 trillion yen ($64.6 billion).
Parliament approved the reduction of social housing rents to 575 euros in the Netherlands
The amendment that Housing Minister De Jonge wanted to make in the law received the support of a majority of the House of Representatives. Social housing rental costs are reduced.
The bill, which was presented by Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge in December last year, allowing low-income tenants living in social housing to reduce the rental price, was supported by the majority of the House of Representatives.
If the bill becomes law, the rental prices of households living in social housing and low income levels will be reduced to 575 euros. Households with an income of less than 120 percent of the minimum wage will benefit from this discount. (Average 2320 euros).
The discount on social housing rents will be valid for residences under 808 euros. In its current form, the law does not cover private sector housing.
The parliamentary majority supported the plan.
A majority of the House of Representatives approved the Minister’s amendment to the Housing Act. However, the opposition parties demanded that the rent reduction should not only benefit 600 thousand low-income households living in social housing, but also nearly 100 thousand households living in private sector residences.
While the parties PvdA, GroenLinks, PVV and SP demanded the Minister to make the necessary changes in the law, they stated that they will vote in favor of the law.
While the coalition partners, CDA and D66 parties, supported the inclusion of tenants in private sector residences in this law, they predicted that an average of 57 euros per month rent reduction would create technical problems. It was stated that the first of these problems was the tax system.
Most industries in the Netherlands have become dependent on immigrants
It is stated that many sectors in the Netherlands have become dependent on migrant workers and services cannot be met without foreign workers.
While many sectors in the Netherlands are dependent on a growing number of migrant workers, experts believe that services cannot be provided without foreign workers.
In the news site NU.nl, it was stated that the number of workers with a migrant background is increasing and many sectors are dependent on foreign workers.
In the news, it was stated that in the period of 2006-2021, the number of foreign workers in the country increased 4 times and approximately 800,000 migrant workers, especially from Eastern European countries, were working in the country.
A march will be held in the Netherlands for the ugly action against the Quran
Pointing out that migrant workers are employed in delivery, warehouse and distribution centers, especially in the agriculture and horticulture sector, experts’ views on the dependency of some sectors on migrant workers were included in the news.
In the news, it was shared that a large number of migrant workers, especially from Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, came to the Netherlands in the last 15 years.
Olaf van Vliet, professor of economics at Leiden University, stressed that migrant workers are especially working in low-wage jobs. “If they leave today, it will be difficult to fill their place.” used the phrase.
Pointing out that hiring foreign workers is a political decision and that it brings with it a number of social problems such as housing shortages, Van Vliet said, “If labor costs increase, consumers will feel it. For example, orders may no longer be delivered for free.” made its assessment.
“These people make a significant contribution to our economy”
Frank van Gool, director of the employment firm OTTO Work Force, stated that some sectors cannot function without migrant workers, adding, “In the absence of these, markets and vegetable stalls will remain empty. There will be problems in the health, construction and technology sectors. There are even Filipino workers in our health sector.” used the phrases.
Noting that he found it right to discuss the social problems that come with the increasing number and place of migrant workers in employment, Van Gool said, “But that doesn’t mean we don’t need those people. These people make a significant contribution to our economy.” commented.
Balance sheets of Apple, Amazon and Alphabet released
Apple’s last quarter of 2022 sales decreased by 5 percent.
Alphabet’s revenue fell short of market expectations at $76.1 billion in the last quarter of last year, while Amazon’s sales surpassed expectations at $149.2 billion in the same period.
The balance sheets of Apple, Amazon and Alphabet 2022 for the October-December period were announced.
While the revenues of US technology giants Apple and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, fell short of expectations in the October-December period of last year, Amazon’s sales exceeded market expectations in the same period.
Shares of Google, Apple and Amazon also fell sharply, while tech stocks fell in post-closing trading following the release of the balance sheets.
APPLE’S INCOME DROPPED
According to the statement made by Apple, the sales of the company, which considered the October-December period of last year as the first quarter in its balance sheet, decreased by 5 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and fell to 117.2 billion dollars. The company had revenue of $123.9 billion in the same period of 2021.
Thus, Apple experienced a year-on-year decline in sales for the first time since 2019. The company’s revenue in the same period also fell short of market expectations of $121.1 billion.
Apple’s net profit, on the other hand, decreased by 13 percent in the October-December period of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year, falling to $ 30 billion. The company’s net profit was recorded as $34.6 billion in the same period of 2021.
The firm’s earnings per share also fell from $2.10 to $1.88 in the given period.
IPHONE AND IMAC SALES DECREASED, IPAD SALES INCREASED
In this period, while Apple’s smartphone and computer sales decreased, tablet sales increased.
In the October-December period of last year, the amount of iPhone sales decreased by 8 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and decreased to 65.8 billion dollars. In the same period, Mac sales fell 29 percent to $7.7 billion, while iPad sales increased 30 percent to $9.4 billion.
On the other hand, Apple Chief Executive (CEO), Tim Cook, in an interview with CNBC, stated that the company’s financial results were affected by the strong dollar, the overall macroeconomic environment with the Kovid-19 restrictions in China affecting iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max production.
AMAZON SALES EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
American e-commerce giant Amazon’s sales exceeded market expectations in the last quarter of last year.
According to the statement made by the company, Amazon’s revenue in the 4th quarter of last year increased by 9 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and reached 149.2 billion dollars. The company’s sales in the last quarter of 2021 were recorded as 137.4 billion dollars.
The firm’s sales in the last quarter of last year exceeded market expectations of $145.4 billion. Amazon’s sales rose to $514 billion in 2022, an increase of 9 percent compared to the previous year. The company’s sales were calculated at $469.8 billion in 2021.
The net profit of the company was recorded as 300 million dollars in the said period. Amazon’s net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 was $14.3 billion.
The e-commerce giant reported a loss of $2.7 billion in 2022. Amazon made a profit of $33.4 billion in 2021. The company’s earnings per share, which was $1.39 in the fourth quarter of 2021, also fell to 3 cents in the same period last year.
ALPHABET DID NOT MEET EXPECTATIONS
Google’s parent company Alphabet also increased its revenue in the last quarter of last year, while its profits fell.
According to the company statement, Alphabet’s revenue in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 1 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching $ 76.1 billion. The company announced revenue of $ 75.3 billion in the October-December period of 2021.
Alphabet’s revenue fell short of market expectations of $76.5 billion despite the limited increase in the period in question. The company’s revenue reached $282.8 billion in 2022, an increase of 10 percent compared to the previous year. Alphabet’s revenue was estimated at $257.6 billion in 2021.
Alphabet’s net profit, on the other hand, fell 34% year-on-year to $13.6 billion in the last quarter of last year. The company had a net profit of $20.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The company’s net profit in 2022 was $59.9 billion. The company reported a profit of $76 billion in 2021. Alphabet’s earnings per share, which was $1.53 in the fourth quarter of 2021, also fell to $1.05 in the same period last year.